Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Why Libya hates Japan

When I talk to my friends who have holdings, options and futures positions in energy stocks, mainly those of crude oil, and the petroleum sector, they all say the same thing: that oil reigns supreme and the countries and corporations that have dominated the global economy with our co-dependence on oil has lead some companies to rise in stock within these uncertain times. Saint Mary Land & Exploration (SM) Chevron (CVX), Tesoro (TSO), Exxon (XOM), Range Resources Group (RRC), Conoco Phillips (COP) are all well run companies. They have established their mighty place in the world. They give people what we need, energy. We love our cars, and cars are run on oil.

The country that has benefited the most, of course, is Libya. Libya is the crack dealer who sells oil to the rest of the world. Their sweetest variety of oil is their largest export, and accounts for more than half of their revenue. The GDP per capita of Libya soared by 676% in the 1960s and a further 480% in the 1970s thanks to oil.  

Libya's natural resource allows the Gaddafis to afford expensive palaces, real estate in foreign countries and a world-class education while the rest of their population live in near poverty. The average Libyan does not have access to a world class education; much of their industry simply revolves around the oil industry.

Japan, by comparison is a wealthy nation that is built upon technological innovation and prowess, similar to the United States and Switzerland. Education is valued by the Japanese. Their main religion, the Shinto religion, is one in which they are one with nature. They created and initiated the Kyoto Treaty, one in which would've made our planet a cleaner and more beautiful place. So, how cruel of a fate is it that the world's leader in clean energy would suffer a tripartite of the worst geophysical disaster ever, in which, not only did they suffer a 9.0 earthquake, but was followed by a tsunami and then a volcanic eruption?

The beauty of Japan, and their love of nature and clean energy was taken away in just one week.





People might ask why? Was it some act of nature? Why did this happen to a country that was the innovator in clean energy?

Let's examine the chronology:

Japan was the first to utilise algae biofuel in commercial airline flights in 2008. They no longer use oil to fuel for airplanes. They want to move away from the world's dependence on oil. By some act of genius, they figured out how to create sustainable energy out of seaweed, and somehow convinced the United States to try it too, so that our US NAVY is fuelled not by the petroleum or natural gas, coal or the oil sector but by algae biofuel, a technology that Japan freely shared with us to the extent that Honeywell (HON) and Exxon (XOM) are also in research and development of the multiple uses of algae biofuel. But that wasn't enough, they somehow also figured out how to power cars by using water in 2008 (Genepax) before MIT researchers figured out the same thing in 2011 to power houses, using the same principle.

What would happen if Japan went into global mass production with these water powered cars?

Libya would no longer have a dependable revenue on exporting oil. They are a nation built upon one thing, and that thing they hold most valuable would not be necessary any longer in global economics.

However, all our great oil companies in the United States would also go bankrupt. Our economy might fall further into recession. The bull run would end. CVX, TSO, SM, COP, RRC, XOM would no longer have a demographic.  These are great companies, and somehow we must find a way for them to transition into our brave new world. When coal was the primary source of energy in America in the 1800s, an American entrepreneur, John D. Rockefeller created the Standard Oil Company, that would later become Exxon Mobil; because he believed oil, and not coal, was the future, despite many protestations of disbelief and doubt coming from the coal industry and the general public.

We seem to be at a similar juncture in time, when there is a changing of the guard. Who will take John D. Rockefeller's place?

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